Casper SMC (Jesse Rogers) is an ICT-derived methodology that restricts entries to liquidity continuations only, never reversals, during the 07:30-10:30 New York session window, using a minimum 3:1 risk-reward target. The approach is defined by operational discipline: no counter-trend trades, and the trading day ends after two losses or one win. Backtesting this methodology lets you measure whether the continuation filter produces a genuine statistical edge on Forex and equity indices.
Who is Casper SMC (Jesse Rogers)?
Jesse Rogers is a trader trained in the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology created by Michael J. Huddleston. He became widely known under the alias "Casper SMC" through YouTube content and SMC community channels, where he shares a distilled version of Smart Money Concepts. His appeal rests on a clear proposition: make ICT accessible by removing the most complex setups (reversals) and replacing them with a single high-probability setup category.
Background and ICT influence
ICT, developed by Michael Huddleston over decades, is a comprehensive theoretical framework covering market structure, liquidity zones, kill zones, Fair Value Gaps, and institutional patterns. This depth is also its main drawback for newer traders: too many concepts create conflicting signals and decision fatigue.
Jesse Rogers studied ICT thoroughly before deciding to distill it. He retained the core (liquidity, structure, kill zones) and removed all counter-trend setups. This radical simplification decision is the founding principle of the Casper SMC method.
Why his simplified approach attracted a large following
Three reasons explain the Casper SMC following. First, the method reduces per-session decisions to a minimum: wait for a continuation setup during the kill zone, then stop. Second, the session management rule is unambiguous: two losses or one win, and you are done for the day. Third, the focus on continuations over reversals aligns with a realistic observation about market structure: institutional displacements tend to continue more often than they reverse immediately at the same level.
Market context
The global Forex market processes $7.5 trillion per day according to the BIS 2022 Triennial Survey. The UK and US together account for 57% of global turnover, which explains why the London/NY overlap window (07:00-10:30 ET) concentrates the day's most significant institutional flow.
Core principles of the Casper SMC strategy
Liquidity over reversals: the key philosophical shift
Most SMC and ICT traders try to determine whether the market will reverse after sweeping a liquidity zone. Casper SMC takes the opposite stance: it assumes the market will continue in the direction of the sweep, and only enters once that assumption is confirmed by a ChoCH and a displacement.
This philosophical position changes how you read charts entirely. The question is no longer "will price bounce after this sweep?" but "does this sweep confirm institutional direction, and will price continue that way?" For the full mechanics of liquidity sweeps in SMC/ICT, see our dedicated guide.
Continuations vs. counter-trend trades
The distinction matters in practice: a continuation trade follows the direction of the recent institutional displacement, while a reversal trade bets against that displacement at an extreme. Casper SMC categorically refuses reversals, even when the setup looks compelling by classic ICT criteria.
Absolute rule
In Casper SMC, no exception to the continuation rule exists. A reversal setup, however convincing, is ignored. This discipline eliminates an entire class of potentially damaging trades from the equity curve.
The Casper SMC 5-step entry method
The method's strength lies in its strict sequence. Each step must be confirmed before moving to the next.
Identify bias from recent displacements
Mark time-based liquidity levels
Wait for the 07:30-10:30 NY kill zone
Confirm a ChoCH plus displacement
Target obvious liquidity at a minimum 3:1 R:R
How Casper SMC differs from standard ICT methodology
| Criterion | Standard ICT | Casper SMC |
|---|---|---|
| Reversal trades | Permitted (turtle soup, reversal ChoCH) | Categorically forbidden |
| Kill zones | London + NY + Asian (context-dependent) | NY only: 07:30-10:30 |
| Continuations | One setup among many | The only permitted setup |
| Session rules | Variable by context | 2 losses or 1 win = stop |
| Minimum R:R | Not specified (contextual) | 3:1 mandatory |
| Complexity | High (many patterns) | Low (single setup type) |
Kill zone discipline: aligned with ICT, but narrower
The New York kill zone concept is central to both ICT and Casper SMC. The difference is scope: standard ICT allows entries across multiple kill zones (London open, NY open, London close), while Casper SMC restricts entries to the 07:30-10:30 NY window exclusively. For a detailed breakdown of ICT kill zones and their timing, see our dedicated article.
No reversal trades: stricter than most SMC traders
The reversal ban is the most divisive aspect of the method. Many ICT and SMC traders cite reversal setups as their highest-probability entries. Jesse Rogers' counterargument is behavioral: reversal trades require predicting a turning point, which introduces a category of errors that continuation trades do not have. A continuation trade confirms direction before entry; a reversal trade predicts direction change before confirmation.
Position management: two losses or one win, then stop
The session management rule is one of the most discussed aspects of Casper SMC. Jesse Rogers recommends stopping after two consecutive losses or one winning trade in a day. The rule targets emotional trading and the revenge trading that typically follows initial losses.
Psychological advantage
The "2 losses or 1 win" rule is a protection against revenge trading. By capping daily exposure, it preserves mental and financial capital for subsequent sessions. It is particularly well-suited to traders in the development phase.
Backtesting the Casper SMC approach
How to measure the liquidity continuation edge
The central question for any trader considering the Casper SMC method: does filtering exclusively for continuations produce a measurable statistical edge compared to a full ICT approach?
The answer cannot come from intuition. It requires systematic backtesting over a sufficient sample. Key variables to isolate include: the success rate of continuation setups vs. reversal setups at the same liquidity level, the impact of the 07:30-10:30 time restriction, and the robustness of the 3:1 R:R filter across different instruments and market conditions.
With Backtrex, you can configure these rules visually without writing code: define the time window, exclude reversal setups, set the minimum R:R. The backtesting engine processes multiple years of data in under 30 seconds, giving you results on real historical data rather than theoretical models.
Common setup failures and why they occur
Casper SMC setups fail in two primary scenarios. First: the daily bias is incorrectly identified in step 1, leading to a continuation trade in the wrong direction. Second: entry is taken on a weak ChoCH (a price move that is insufficiently decisive) that does not genuinely confirm a structure shift.
Understanding ICT market structure at a foundational level is a prerequisite. A misread ChoCH is the number one source of errors in practitioner feedback from traders who have adopted this approach.
Key statistic
According to the ESMA, between 74 and 89% of retail CFD accounts lose money. Operational discipline, including strict time-window rules, a minimum R:R filter, and stopping after two losses, is precisely what separates systematic traders from the majority.
Important Risk Warning
Conclusion
The Casper SMC method by Jesse Rogers is a rigorous distillation of ICT: one setup type, one time window, one simple session rule, and a non-negotiable R:R target. Its strength is internal consistency: by removing reversals, it reduces performance variance and makes systematic backtesting straightforward.
Before committing to this methodology in live trading, validate it on your specific instruments and typical market conditions. Backtrex lets you test the Casper SMC approach without writing a single line of code, in minutes across years of historical data. See our pricing to choose the plan that fits your backtesting needs.
Casper SMC is the trading alias of Jesse Rogers, an ICT-trained trader known for simplifying the SMC approach to focus exclusively on liquidity sweeps and price continuations rather than reversals. He became prominent through YouTube content and community guides explaining how to apply ICT concepts with fewer decisions and a stricter set of entry criteria.
The Casper SMC 5-step method is: 1) Identify daily bias from recent displacements on D1 and H4; 2) mark time-based liquidity levels (Asian range, prior day high/low, equal highs/lows); 3) trade only during the 07:30-10:30 NY kill zone; 4) wait for a Change of Character (ChoCH) with a clean displacement in the direction of the bias; 5) target the next obvious liquidity zone at a minimum 3:1 risk-reward ratio.
Casper SMC is derived from ICT but is not the same. Jesse Rogers removes reversal setups that standard ICT allows (turtle soup, reversal ChoCH entries), restricts the entry window to 07:30-10:30 NY (narrower than ICT standard kill zones), and adds a session stopping rule (2 losses or 1 win) that is absent from classic ICT. The philosophical core is shared, but the operational rules are materially different.
To backtest Casper SMC effectively, isolate these variables: continuation vs. reversal setup win rates at the same liquidity level, the impact of the 07:30-10:30 time filter, and the R:R 3:1 minimum across your target instruments. Tools like Backtrex let you configure these rules visually without code and produce results across years of data in under 30 seconds. See our features for more detail.
The Casper SMC method is primarily applied on major Forex pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) and US equity indices (NQ, ES) during the New York kill zone. These instruments concentrate the most institutional flow in the 07:30-10:30 ET window. Jesse Rogers most frequently demonstrates the method on EUR/USD and NQ in public content.
A Change of Character (ChoCH) is the entry confirmation signal in Casper SMC. It forms on an execution timeframe (M5 or M15) when price breaks a swing in the direction of the identified bias, after a liquidity sweep. The ChoCH must be accompanied by a clean displacement, not a gradual drift, to validate entry. A ChoCH without displacement is considered insufficient by the methodology. See our guide on the ChoCH ICT pattern.
The "2 consecutive losses or 1 winning trade = stop the session" rule is a psychological risk management heuristic, not a profit-maximizing strategy. Its purpose is to prevent revenge trading after losses and over-trading after a win. Effectiveness depends on individual trading psychology. To measure its actual impact on overall performance, systematic backtesting across a sufficient sample of sessions is necessary.